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- The problem with probabililities without models (16 comments)
- Jeremy I like the illustration of "unknown unknowns" preventing you from calculating conditional probabilities. As other people have commented, I think you have to be careful... – 2015-11-16 21:13
- entirelyuseless Ok. Yes, that's what I meant. I agree that it isn't very similar to a numerical update, but in any case I did say in... – 2015-09-19 00:15
- Gilbert I think we don't have much substantial disagreement left, just disagreements about semantics. If keeping the new argument in mind, respecting its proponents more etc.... – 2015-09-16 23:24
- Assumptions behind a curtain (7 comments)
- Alexander Stanislaw Doh! I either didn't notice the year or it didn't register. – 2015-11-11 21:39
- Gilbert I agree. Scott is very likely no longer listening, given that this post is more than a year old. – 2015-11-08 22:42
- Alexander Stanislaw Regarding the bench press example, I initially had squats, but I thought that was ungenerous to the case for a casual g. Either one works... – 2015-11-07 23:37
- Quick note on commenting (3 comments)
- Gilbert In principle, yes, but with reservations: - Basically I won't do unilateral rhetorical disarmament where that would mean accepting an inferior role. For example Ayn... – 2014-06-14 13:35
- MugaSofer Out of interest, does this apply the other way? – 2014-06-13 20:11
- Against realism (3 comments)
- lmm No, it didn't, ignore. – 2014-04-23 09:50
- The problem with probabililities without models (16 comments)
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Category Archives: Minor notes
Intrade anger
[Content warning: Swearing. Lots of it.] [Update: I got my principle back, minus a few Dollars for fees and a few Euros because the Dollar got stronger.] So during the sedisvacancy I put $500 into Intrade, betting most of it … Continue reading
A propos
English translation of the text: 1. I am baptized an consecrated to God through Christ’s name and sign, the seal of the trinity will never depart from me. God has given me his spirit, I am recessed into Christ and … Continue reading
And another note on the circumcision bill
Like I predicted, the Bundesrat forworded the circumcision bill to the Bundestag without objections. The first reading in the Bundestag is scheduled for the 208th session on the 22nd of November. Thats a bit later than I predicted, probably because … Continue reading
Divergent reporting
Basically all English language media report that Pussy Riot gut sentenced to two years in “prison”. All German media report two years in a “Straflager” (penal camp). It’s outrageously excessive either way, but “Russian penal camp” makes me think of … Continue reading
Some political worrying on the side
So when the Euro unravels and if it does so disorderedly, how much of the rest of European integration does it take down with it?
Please donate for evil
I can’t say anything positive about the Secular Student Alliance. They are clearly not worthy of support. Free speech, however, is worthy of support. Unfortunately some people seem to disagree with it. Recently, the SSA has been targeted by Distributed … Continue reading
Posted in Minor notes
4 Comments
Liturgical fretting for hypocrites
I just left mass early. It was a children’s mass and I hadn’t expected that. Now I like children, and I like mass, and I approve of children’s masses. But I can’t bring myself to like them. The way I … Continue reading
Today in history
75 years ago today, on March 21, 1937, the papal encyclical Mit brennender Sorge (with burning concern) was read in all Catholic churches of Germany. It had been prepared and copied in secret, for doing that openly was impossible, Germany … Continue reading