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- The problem with probabililities without models (16 comments)
- Jeremy I like the illustration of "unknown unknowns" preventing you from calculating conditional probabilities. As other people have commented, I think you have to be careful... – 2015-11-16 21:13
- entirelyuseless Ok. Yes, that's what I meant. I agree that it isn't very similar to a numerical update, but in any case I did say in... – 2015-09-19 00:15
- Gilbert I think we don't have much substantial disagreement left, just disagreements about semantics. If keeping the new argument in mind, respecting its proponents more etc.... – 2015-09-16 23:24
- Assumptions behind a curtain (7 comments)
- Alexander Stanislaw Doh! I either didn't notice the year or it didn't register. – 2015-11-11 21:39
- Gilbert I agree. Scott is very likely no longer listening, given that this post is more than a year old. – 2015-11-08 22:42
- Alexander Stanislaw Regarding the bench press example, I initially had squats, but I thought that was ungenerous to the case for a casual g. Either one works... – 2015-11-07 23:37
- Quick note on commenting (3 comments)
- Gilbert In principle, yes, but with reservations: - Basically I won't do unilateral rhetorical disarmament where that would mean accepting an inferior role. For example Ayn... – 2014-06-14 13:35
- MugaSofer Out of interest, does this apply the other way? – 2014-06-13 20:11
- Against realism (3 comments)
- lmm No, it didn't, ignore. – 2014-04-23 09:50
- The problem with probabililities without models (16 comments)
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Tag Archives: Yudkowskyanism
The problem with probabililities without models
Scott Alexander writes in defense of probabilities without models. I denied the possibility of this before, also in the context of Scott’s steel-manning of Yudkowskyanism, but back then the focus of the discussion was slightly different. So this is a … Continue reading
Models as filthy water
[I was planning on this main metaphor before that other filthy water metaphor shook the Catholic blogosphere. Absolutely no reference intended.] When journalists asked Konrad Adenauer, the first post-war German chancellor, why his foreign office had so many employees who … Continue reading
The disappointing rightness of Scott Alexander
It turns out that Scott Alexander is even smarter than I thought. This is somewhat disappointing. Perhaps I should slow down on explaining that? The proof of his smartness is of course in agreeing with me. On his blog he … Continue reading
Quantum sophistry
A few days ago, we got to know the members of the St. Hypotheticus drinking and nerdery club. Today we listen in on their inaugural meeting. They have just finished the administrative part and are now about to enter on … Continue reading