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- The problem with probabililities without models (16 comments)
- Jeremy I like the illustration of "unknown unknowns" preventing you from calculating conditional probabilities. As other people have commented, I think you have to be careful... – 2015-11-16 21:13
- entirelyuseless Ok. Yes, that's what I meant. I agree that it isn't very similar to a numerical update, but in any case I did say in... – 2015-09-19 00:15
- Gilbert I think we don't have much substantial disagreement left, just disagreements about semantics. If keeping the new argument in mind, respecting its proponents more etc.... – 2015-09-16 23:24
- Assumptions behind a curtain (7 comments)
- Alexander Stanislaw Doh! I either didn't notice the year or it didn't register. – 2015-11-11 21:39
- Gilbert I agree. Scott is very likely no longer listening, given that this post is more than a year old. – 2015-11-08 22:42
- Alexander Stanislaw Regarding the bench press example, I initially had squats, but I thought that was ungenerous to the case for a casual g. Either one works... – 2015-11-07 23:37
- Quick note on commenting (3 comments)
- Gilbert In principle, yes, but with reservations: - Basically I won't do unilateral rhetorical disarmament where that would mean accepting an inferior role. For example Ayn... – 2014-06-14 13:35
- MugaSofer Out of interest, does this apply the other way? – 2014-06-13 20:11
- Against realism (3 comments)
- lmm No, it didn't, ignore. – 2014-04-23 09:50
- The problem with probabililities without models (16 comments)
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Monthly Archives: March 2012
Today in history
75 years ago today, on March 21, 1937, the papal encyclical Mit brennender Sorge (with burning concern) was read in all Catholic churches of Germany. It had been prepared and copied in secret, for doing that openly was impossible, Germany … Continue reading
Someone is wasting my money
Within minutes of posting this, it was accessed by two IP’s that had never been here before. One is registered to the Commission of the European Communities, the other to the Council of the European Union. Both were using dated … Continue reading
Constitution blogging day wrapup
This ends my day of blogging on the German constitution. Technically, the day ended two hours ago, but I didn’t finish in time. I didn’t cover everything worth covering. For example, a lot could be said about proportional representation, international … Continue reading
Delegation and Europe
Germany is traditionally big on European integration. And indeed European integration has gone much further than anyone would have expected, say, 30 years ago. In fact it has gone much further than most Europeans realize. Right now I won’t explain … Continue reading
No direct democracy
One standard criticism of the Basic Law is that it doesn’t allow the people to ever vote on federal laws directly. This is a point I fully agree with. As I said in my last post, a simple majority at … Continue reading
Eternal articles and judical review
One of the most famous features of the Basic Law is its eternity clause in article 79 (official translation, emphasis mine): Article 79 (1) This Basic Law may be amended only by a law expressly amending or supplementing its text. … Continue reading
Half-hearted federalism
As the name might imply, the Federal Republic of Germany has constituent states. Federalism, of course, has many advantages. It keeps decisions closer to the people, allows laboratories for experimentation, etc. In theory most Germans agree with this, but when … Continue reading
“Capital punishment is abolished.”
Those are the simple words of article 102 of the Basic Law. Nowadays most developed countries have abolished capital punishment and many have done so constitutionally. But in 1949 constitutional abolition was still unusual. We Germans tend to over-idealize this … Continue reading
How to choose a head of state
In my last post I approved of the German constitution’s design choice to have an apolitical head of state. Once that design choice is made the question is how to choose that head of state. The obvious first idea is … Continue reading
The two-headed Leviathan
In my last post I argued against the parliamentary system. If I got my will, the absence of a stable majority in parliament would no longer mean a constitutional crisis. That would make the president’s reserve powers dispensable. But there … Continue reading