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- The problem with probabililities without models (16 comments)
- Jeremy I like the illustration of "unknown unknowns" preventing you from calculating conditional probabilities. As other people have commented, I think you have to be careful... – 2015-11-16 21:13
- entirelyuseless Ok. Yes, that's what I meant. I agree that it isn't very similar to a numerical update, but in any case I did say in... – 2015-09-19 00:15
- Gilbert I think we don't have much substantial disagreement left, just disagreements about semantics. If keeping the new argument in mind, respecting its proponents more etc.... – 2015-09-16 23:24
- Assumptions behind a curtain (7 comments)
- Alexander Stanislaw Doh! I either didn't notice the year or it didn't register. – 2015-11-11 21:39
- Gilbert I agree. Scott is very likely no longer listening, given that this post is more than a year old. – 2015-11-08 22:42
- Alexander Stanislaw Regarding the bench press example, I initially had squats, but I thought that was ungenerous to the case for a casual g. Either one works... – 2015-11-07 23:37
- Quick note on commenting (3 comments)
- Gilbert In principle, yes, but with reservations: - Basically I won't do unilateral rhetorical disarmament where that would mean accepting an inferior role. For example Ayn... – 2014-06-14 13:35
- MugaSofer Out of interest, does this apply the other way? – 2014-06-13 20:11
- Against realism (3 comments)
- lmm No, it didn't, ignore. – 2014-04-23 09:50
- The problem with probabililities without models (16 comments)
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Category Archives: Politics
Last scene of the fourth act
[Hindsight note: This prediction was wrong.] Most people won’t realize how serious this is until it happens. Within a week. June 26th was the Greek tragedy’s third act: The conflict couldn’t be resolved short of a catastrophe. The Greeks wouldn’t … Continue reading
Confusion and the Morning After Pill
About two months ago the German bishops made the news with a statement on the Morning After Pill and rape. I was dissatisfied with basically all sides’ knee-jerk reactions but also too busy to explain lots of details. So here’s … Continue reading
It’s official
The circumcision act is in yesterday’s Bundesgesetzblatt (the federal official journal), which means it’s now in force and circumcision is again unambiguously legal in Germany. I guess there will be some unsuccessful court challenges, but basically it’s over. Here’s an … Continue reading
Glooooooooooooooria in excelsis deeo!
So I kind of expected the committee to take its time, relegated the question to the back of my mind, forgot to follow the parliamentary calendar – and dropped the ball on reporting the main event. The Bundestag passed the … Continue reading
The circumcision bill
Most of you are probably bored of my reports on Germany dealing with that idiotic court decision on circumcision a few months ago. But I’m not relenting, so here’s the newest update: Today the federal cabinet resolved on the bill … Continue reading
Returning to civilization
You may remember that in June a German court went berserk and found circumcision a crime. About two weeks later, I told you about government plans to clarify its legality statute. Now the ministry of justice is polling the states … Continue reading
Circumcision update
After the circumcision judgment I mentioned about two weeks ago, the federal government has now announced it is committed to keep religious circumcision possible and restore the security of law rapidly and is presently investigating ways to to that including … Continue reading
On that circumcision decision
You probably heard the news of a German court declaring circumcision illegal. As a German religion blogger blogging in English I probably should comment on that. So first I’ll explain what happened and then I’ll offer some commentary. The abstract … Continue reading
Constitution blogging day wrapup
This ends my day of blogging on the German constitution. Technically, the day ended two hours ago, but I didn’t finish in time. I didn’t cover everything worth covering. For example, a lot could be said about proportional representation, international … Continue reading
Delegation and Europe
Germany is traditionally big on European integration. And indeed European integration has gone much further than anyone would have expected, say, 30 years ago. In fact it has gone much further than most Europeans realize. Right now I won’t explain … Continue reading