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- The problem with probabililities without models (16 comments)
- Jeremy I like the illustration of "unknown unknowns" preventing you from calculating conditional probabilities. As other people have commented, I think you have to be careful... – 2015-11-16 21:13
- entirelyuseless Ok. Yes, that's what I meant. I agree that it isn't very similar to a numerical update, but in any case I did say in... – 2015-09-19 00:15
- Gilbert I think we don't have much substantial disagreement left, just disagreements about semantics. If keeping the new argument in mind, respecting its proponents more etc.... – 2015-09-16 23:24
- Assumptions behind a curtain (7 comments)
- Alexander Stanislaw Doh! I either didn't notice the year or it didn't register. – 2015-11-11 21:39
- Gilbert I agree. Scott is very likely no longer listening, given that this post is more than a year old. – 2015-11-08 22:42
- Alexander Stanislaw Regarding the bench press example, I initially had squats, but I thought that was ungenerous to the case for a casual g. Either one works... – 2015-11-07 23:37
- Quick note on commenting (3 comments)
- Gilbert In principle, yes, but with reservations: - Basically I won't do unilateral rhetorical disarmament where that would mean accepting an inferior role. For example Ayn... – 2014-06-14 13:35
- MugaSofer Out of interest, does this apply the other way? – 2014-06-13 20:11
- Against realism (3 comments)
- lmm No, it didn't, ignore. – 2014-04-23 09:50
- The problem with probabililities without models (16 comments)
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Tag Archives: politics
Last scene of the fourth act
[Hindsight note: This prediction was wrong.] Most people won’t realize how serious this is until it happens. Within a week. June 26th was the Greek tragedy’s third act: The conflict couldn’t be resolved short of a catastrophe. The Greeks wouldn’t … Continue reading
Oversimplification by Catholic cardinals and atheist bloggers
Atheist blogger JT Eberhard has a piece accusing the Catholic Church of supporting the Pinochet regime in Chile. This is somewhat surprising given the conventional wisdom is that the Chilean Catholic Church under Cardinal Silva basically ran what little internal … Continue reading
Posted in Arguments
Tagged argumentation, don't try this at home, history, politics, surely something wrong here
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It’s official
The circumcision act is in yesterday’s Bundesgesetzblatt (the federal official journal), which means it’s now in force and circumcision is again unambiguously legal in Germany. I guess there will be some unsuccessful court challenges, but basically it’s over. Here’s an … Continue reading
And another note on the circumcision bill
Like I predicted, the Bundesrat forworded the circumcision bill to the Bundestag without objections. The first reading in the Bundestag is scheduled for the 208th session on the 22nd of November. Thats a bit later than I predicted, probably because … Continue reading
Returning to civilization
You may remember that in June a German court went berserk and found circumcision a crime. About two weeks later, I told you about government plans to clarify its legality statute. Now the ministry of justice is polling the states … Continue reading
The prophesy of Caiaphas
So the chief priests and the Pharisees convened the Sanhedrin and said, “What are we going to do? This man is performing many signs. If we leave him alone, all will believe in him, and the Romans will come and … Continue reading
Some political worrying on the side
So when the Euro unravels and if it does so disorderedly, how much of the rest of European integration does it take down with it?
Constitution blogging day wrapup
This ends my day of blogging on the German constitution. Technically, the day ended two hours ago, but I didn’t finish in time. I didn’t cover everything worth covering. For example, a lot could be said about proportional representation, international … Continue reading
Delegation and Europe
Germany is traditionally big on European integration. And indeed European integration has gone much further than anyone would have expected, say, 30 years ago. In fact it has gone much further than most Europeans realize. Right now I won’t explain … Continue reading
No direct democracy
One standard criticism of the Basic Law is that it doesn’t allow the people to ever vote on federal laws directly. This is a point I fully agree with. As I said in my last post, a simple majority at … Continue reading