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- The problem with probabililities without models (16 comments)
- Jeremy I like the illustration of "unknown unknowns" preventing you from calculating conditional probabilities. As other people have commented, I think you have to be careful... – 2015-11-16 21:13
- entirelyuseless Ok. Yes, that's what I meant. I agree that it isn't very similar to a numerical update, but in any case I did say in... – 2015-09-19 00:15
- Gilbert I think we don't have much substantial disagreement left, just disagreements about semantics. If keeping the new argument in mind, respecting its proponents more etc.... – 2015-09-16 23:24
- Assumptions behind a curtain (7 comments)
- Alexander Stanislaw Doh! I either didn't notice the year or it didn't register. – 2015-11-11 21:39
- Gilbert I agree. Scott is very likely no longer listening, given that this post is more than a year old. – 2015-11-08 22:42
- Alexander Stanislaw Regarding the bench press example, I initially had squats, but I thought that was ungenerous to the case for a casual g. Either one works... – 2015-11-07 23:37
- Quick note on commenting (3 comments)
- Gilbert In principle, yes, but with reservations: - Basically I won't do unilateral rhetorical disarmament where that would mean accepting an inferior role. For example Ayn... – 2014-06-14 13:35
- MugaSofer Out of interest, does this apply the other way? – 2014-06-13 20:11
- Against realism (3 comments)
- lmm No, it didn't, ignore. – 2014-04-23 09:50
- The problem with probabililities without models (16 comments)
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Tag Archives: politics
Eternal articles and judical review
One of the most famous features of the Basic Law is its eternity clause in article 79 (official translation, emphasis mine): Article 79 (1) This Basic Law may be amended only by a law expressly amending or supplementing its text. … Continue reading
Half-hearted federalism
As the name might imply, the Federal Republic of Germany has constituent states. Federalism, of course, has many advantages. It keeps decisions closer to the people, allows laboratories for experimentation, etc. In theory most Germans agree with this, but when … Continue reading
“Capital punishment is abolished.”
Those are the simple words of article 102 of the Basic Law. Nowadays most developed countries have abolished capital punishment and many have done so constitutionally. But in 1949 constitutional abolition was still unusual. We Germans tend to over-idealize this … Continue reading
How to choose a head of state
In my last post I approved of the German constitution’s design choice to have an apolitical head of state. Once that design choice is made the question is how to choose that head of state. The obvious first idea is … Continue reading
The two-headed Leviathan
In my last post I argued against the parliamentary system. If I got my will, the absence of a stable majority in parliament would no longer mean a constitutional crisis. That would make the president’s reserve powers dispensable. But there … Continue reading
Nominal and actual power in the parlimentary system
When the United States or even France elect a president it is big news. The election of the German president not so much. That is, of course, because, at least in normal times, the German president doesn’t hold significant power. … Continue reading
Nothing is quite as permanent as a provisional arrangement
The German title of the German constitution is Grundgesetz für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland. Literally translated, that would be the Basic Law for the Federal Republic of Germany. There is a German word for constitution (Verfassung) and previous constitutions were titled … Continue reading
Constitution blogging day in view of tomorrow’s presidential election
Tomorrow (Sunday, March 18, 2012) the 15th Federal Convention will elect Joachim Gauck president of Germany. As I already threatened when there were speculations about his predecessors resignation, I’m seizing the opportunity to talk about the German constitution, the Grundgesetz. … Continue reading