[Content warning: Swearing. Lots of it.]
[Update: I got my principle back, minus a few Dollars for fees and a few Euros because the Dollar got stronger.]
So during the sedisvacancy I put $500 into Intrade, betting most of it on the conclave’s outcome. Yep, that’s totally legal canonically, though I’m not quite sure about Germanically. If they hadn’t canceled all positions a few days before the conclave, I would have won, by my calculation, $82.41. Now it looks like even my original investment is in danger.
No need to worry about my wellbeing, I can afford the loss, or I wouldn’t have been gambling with that money in the first place. This isn’t my lunch, it’s my Nexus 10. Still, I am really fucking pissed off and need to vent a little.
Random points of random:
- Conspiracy theory: When the American authorities shut Americans out of Intrade for flimsy reasons a few months ago, did they know something?
- Alternative speculation: Or otherwise, did the exodus of American customers break the camels back?
- Incredulous swearing: How the fuck do you need external auditors to tell you the balance on your bank accounts is $700000 less than in your computer system? This ain’t rocket surgery.
- Policy proposal: The directors of a financial service company should have to pledge their personal property on its survival. Not because there would be much to collect but to align incentives.
- Insight: Perhaps illiquid markets are illiquid for reasons.
- Dire prediction: For the foreseeable future, this is the end of prediction markets. Governments don’t like them, so there will be no properly regulated versions. The main prediction market advocates are libertarians anyway, so basically nobody wants prediction markets regulated to the the degree that is objectively necessary for them to work. And the free market is plainly unable to do it. Sorry GMU econ department, come back in 50 years.