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 The problem with probabililities without models (16 comments)
 Jeremy I like the illustration of "unknown unknowns" preventing you from calculating conditional probabilities. As other people have commented, I think you have to be careful... – 20151116 21:13
 entirelyuseless Ok. Yes, that's what I meant. I agree that it isn't very similar to a numerical update, but in any case I did say in... – 20150919 00:15
 Gilbert I think we don't have much substantial disagreement left, just disagreements about semantics. If keeping the new argument in mind, respecting its proponents more etc.... – 20150916 23:24
 Assumptions behind a curtain (7 comments)
 Alexander Stanislaw Doh! I either didn't notice the year or it didn't register. – 20151111 21:39
 Gilbert I agree. Scott is very likely no longer listening, given that this post is more than a year old. – 20151108 22:42
 Alexander Stanislaw Regarding the bench press example, I initially had squats, but I thought that was ungenerous to the case for a casual g. Either one works... – 20151107 23:37
 Quick note on commenting (3 comments)
 Gilbert In principle, yes, but with reservations:  Basically I won't do unilateral rhetorical disarmament where that would mean accepting an inferior role. For example Ayn... – 20140614 13:35
 MugaSofer Out of interest, does this apply the other way? – 20140613 20:11
 Against realism (3 comments)
 lmm No, it didn't, ignore. – 20140423 09:50
 The problem with probabililities without models (16 comments)

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Category Archives: Math
The problem with probabililities without models
Scott Alexander writes in defense of probabilities without models. I denied the possibility of this before, also in the context of Scott's steelmanning of Yudkowskyanism, but back then the focus of the discussion was slightly different. So this is a … Continue reading
Vectors
This is part two of a series on Fourier analysis and intuition. In the intro post to this series I promised to explain how Fourier analysis is similar to the geometry of shadows but noted I would first have to … Continue reading
New series: Fourier analysis and intuition
Looking at my posts so far, I haven't been talking about math yet. So today I'm starting a new series on my favorite part of math: Fourier analysis. Now please my dear readers (both of you), don't run away! This … Continue reading