Tag Archives: probability models

The problem with probabililities without models

Scott Alexander writes in defense of probabilities without models. I denied the possibility of this before, also in the context of Scott's steel-manning of Yudkowskyanism, but back then the focus of the discussion was slightly different. So this is a … Continue reading

Posted in Arguments, Math | Tagged , , | 16 Comments

Models as filthy water

[I was planning on this main metaphor before that other filthy water metaphor shook the Catholic blogosphere. Absolutely no reference intended.] When journalists asked Konrad Adenauer, the first post-war German chancellor, why his foreign office had so many employees who … Continue reading

Posted in Arguments | Tagged , , | 7 Comments

The disappointing rightness of Scott Alexander

It turns out that Scott Alexander is even smarter than I thought. This is somewhat disappointing. Perhaps I should slow down on explaining that? The proof of his smartness is of course in agreeing with me. On his blog he … Continue reading

Posted in Arguments | Tagged , , | 6 Comments