Author Archives: Gilbert

The problem with probabililities without models

Scott Alexander writes in defense of probabilities without models. I denied the possibility of this before, also in the context of Scott's steel-manning of Yudkowskyanism, but back then the focus of the discussion was slightly different. So this is a … Continue reading

Posted in Arguments, Math | Tagged , , | 16 Comments

Last scene of the fourth act

[Hindsight note: This prediction was wrong.] Most people won't realize how serious this is until it happens. Within a week. June 26th was the Greek tragedy's third act: The conflict couldn't be resolved short of a catastrophe. The Greeks wouldn't … Continue reading

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Assumptions behind a curtain

This is basically an overly long response to a recent blog post by Scott Alexander. It's not very interesting outside of that context, so read that first unless you did so already. Also, most of this is further simplification of … Continue reading

Posted in Arguments | Tagged , , | 7 Comments

Against realism

Leah Libresco is stymied at this week's edition of her Pope Francis bookclub. (You won't be able to follow the rest of this without reading that post.) I'm not guaranteeing for my own interpretation here, but I think the problem … Continue reading

Posted in Meditations | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

Hi everybody

Just a note for folks coming over from the ITT at Unequally Yoked: As you can see, this blog is presently inactive. That's because I'm all stressed out on a new job and moving houses next week. The blog will … Continue reading

Posted in Meta | 2 Comments

Models as filthy water

[I was planning on this main metaphor before that other filthy water metaphor shook the Catholic blogosphere. Absolutely no reference intended.] When journalists asked Konrad Adenauer, the first post-war German chancellor, why his foreign office had so many employees who … Continue reading

Posted in Arguments | Tagged , , | 7 Comments

The disappointing rightness of Scott Alexander

It turns out that Scott Alexander is even smarter than I thought. This is somewhat disappointing. Perhaps I should slow down on explaining that? The proof of his smartness is of course in agreeing with me. On his blog he … Continue reading

Posted in Arguments | Tagged , , | 6 Comments

Samurai Mormon

This cracks me up.

Posted in Minor notes | Leave a comment

Oversimplification by Catholic cardinals and atheist bloggers

Atheist blogger JT Eberhard has a piece accusing the Catholic Church of supporting the Pinochet regime in Chile. This is somewhat surprising given the conventional wisdom is that the Chilean Catholic Church under Cardinal Silva basically ran what little internal … Continue reading

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Confusion and the Morning After Pill

About two months ago the German bishops made the news with a statement on the Morning After Pill and rape. I was dissatisfied with basically all sides' knee-jerk reactions but also too busy to explain lots of details. So  here's … Continue reading

Posted in Politics | Tagged , , | 18 Comments